2 in 3 Indians surveyed believe Modi Government 2.0 has met expectations, however, most not happy with unemployment and rising cost of essentials

May 30, 2022, New Delhi: Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led NDA Government took its oath on May 30th, 2019, for the 2nd term. The 3-year term of the Modi Government 2.0, which has been marked by the economic recovery post 3 waves of the COVID-19, the massive COVID vaccination drive, providing relief measures to citizens and industry, and its balanced position in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine armed conflict, the government which was perceived as faltering by a section of the citizenry a year ago is now looking to be on a stronger footing.

LocalCircles, for the last 8 years, has been conducting an annual assessment via citizens’ survey exercise to gauge the performance of the Central Government. It is this same survey released on March 6th, 2019, a month before the national elections, which brought out that 75% of citizens rating that the Modi Government 1.0 in its 5 years of governance had met or exceeded expectations. Proving the findings true, the Modi-led NDA Government won elections in 353 parliamentary seats, and the BJP won 303 seats alone bringing the government back to power with an even bigger majority.

As the Modi Government 2.0 completes its 3-year mark on May 30th, 2022, LocalCircles has gone back to citizens to rate 19 areas of the government functioning and the overall 3-years performance of the Modi Government 2.0. Nearly 221,000 responses were received in this study from over 64,000 unique citizens located across 350 districts of India. 65% of respondents were men while 35% were women.

This year, a total of 67% of citizens said that the government has either met or exceeded their expectations in the last 3 years. Around 33% of citizens said the government has exceeded their expectations while 34% said that the government met their expectations. A similar survey by LocalCircles was conducted in 2021 to know citizens’ pulse on the performance of the Modi Government after the 2nd year of its 2nd term. In the then survey, 51% of citizens rated it as either meeting or exceeding their expectations. This means, in the 3rd year of its 2nd term, citizens who have rated the Modi Government 2.0 as meeting or exceeding expectations has increased by 16%. The percentage of citizens in 2020 who had rated Modi Government as meeting or exceeding expectations was 62%, which was a decline from 75% in the 2019 survey.

Below is a summary of the survey findings in different areas of the government functioning:

As Modi Government 2.0 course corrects post-COVID 2nd wave, its approval rating rises from 51% to 67% at the 3rd year mark

LocalCircles has been conducting a similar survey to assess the performance of the Modi-led NDA Government for the last 8 years. If we compare the last 3 years’ results with this year’s result, it looks like the citizen ratings for the Modi Government 2.0 post-COVID 2nd wave have improved from 51% to 67% at the 3-years mark.

29% of citizens in the 2020 survey had said that the government addressed the issue of unemployment. This percentage saw a marginal drop in 2021 to 27% of people expressing similar confidence. The COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent lockdowns since 2020 have had a drastic effect on the already struggling Indian economy, resulting in business disruption and massive job losses. However, this percentage in 2022 has increased to 37% of people who believe that the government addressing the critical issue of unemployment.

Only 37% of citizens in the 2020 survey said it has become easier to establish, operate and grow a startup or small business in India. This percentage has seen an upward trend, with 44% of citizens expressing similar confidence in the 2021 survey, and has now increased to 60% this year.

When it comes to India’s influence in the world, 79% of citizens in the 2020 survey believed that the country’s image has improved. 59% of citizens in 2021 expressed similar confidence. This percentage in 2022 increased back to 79% of people who believe that India’s influence in the world has risen.

Effectively handling the Parliament and delivering on key bills has seen a slight improvement from last year. 75% of citizens in 2020 had expressed confidence that the government addressed it well, but it declined to 61% expressing similar confidence in the 2021 survey, and has increased marginally to 67% in 2022.

The reduction in corruption has seen a slight improvement in the 2022 survey. 49% of citizens in 2020 said that corruption has reduced, but this percentage dropped to 39% in the 2021 survey. This year, this percentage received a slightly better rating to 46% of citizens who now believe that corruption has reduced in the last 3 years.

43% of citizens in 2020 felt doing business in India has improved, but it dropped marginally to 41% in the 2021 survey. However, this percentage has increased to 52% in 2022, indicating that an increasing number of citizens now believe that doing business in India has gotten easier in the last 3 years.

In the area of controlling the prices of essential commodities and reducing the cost of living in India, there has been a downward trend in citizens’ approval in the last 3 years. Only 36% of citizens in 2020 had said the government effectively controlled the prices of essential commodities. The rating further declined to 19% in 2021 and continued to decline to 17% of citizens in 2022 now saying that prices of essential commodities and the cost of living have reduced.

Below is an area wise summary of state of affairs and people’s rating of 3 years of Modi Government 2.0

State of the Economy

In March 2022, the global rating firm, Moody’s, slashed India's gross domestic product (GDP) for the current calendar year to 9.1%, from 9.5% earlier. The rating agency has, however, cautioned that high fuel and fertiliser import bill could limit the government's capital expenditure. While the government was already fighting the economic downturn due to the COVID-induced pandemic, the 3rd wave further pulled back the economy. Most states and UTs observed lockdown or lockdown-like restrictions for more than a month as daily cases rose significantly, though fewer related deaths were observed as compared to the 2nd wave. For 2023, Moody’s expects India's GDP product to expand to 5.4%, which is marginally lower than its previous projection of 5.5%. India's GDP grew 8.2% in 2021, after a 6.7% contraction the year before. Meanwhile, India’s unemployment problem rose to 7.83% in April from 7.60% in March, according to the data released by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). While rural data showed a marginal drop in unemployment from 7.29% in March to 7.18% in April, urban joblessness saw a sharp spike to 9.22% in April from 8.28% a month ago. In the LocalCircles’ survey, only 37% of citizens believe that Modi Government has been able to effectively tackle unemployment in India in the last 3 years, which continues to remain a critical area where people want to see concrete action. One of the causes for the increase in unemployment has been COVID-related disruptions and lack of foreign and domestic investments, and other geopolitical and economic uncertainties.

The pandemic has already caused small Indian startups and MSMEs to suffer losses, leading to layoffs and business closures in 2020 and 2021. The concomitant effect of the 3 waves of COVID in India has brought mounting challenges for small businesses. At the same time, funding new businesses or startups have taken off well, creating new jobs and wealth. India has done substantially well in areas like starting a business, import-export trade permits, resolving insolvency, etc. and businesses have appreciated these efforts. While the government has eased out administrative processes to register a startup, or while applying for patents, however, doing business with the government or Indian corporates and getting paid on time continue to be a challenge for startups and MSMEs. 52% of citizens surveyed believe doing business has become easier in the last 3 years. Notably, in November 2020, during the 1st wave of the COVID outbreak, the government announced INR 20 lakh crore Aatmanirbhar Bharat economic stimulus package to revive India’s economic track after the COVID-19 pandemic. There were, however, teething issues that small businesses faced to avail of these benefits and many didn’t have existing debt or loans on their books to qualify under the Atmanirbhar Bharat scheme. According to a media report, citing Employees' Provident Fund Organisation data, as of September 2021, total jobs created under the Aatmanirbhar Bharat Rojgar Yojana (ABRY) stood at 3.29 million. The government had set a target of creating 5.85 million formal jobs by March 31st, 2022. Several reforms were introduced by the government in the last 3 years to eliminate human interfaces with electronic interfaces such that the room for harassment by tax officials is minimised. 60% of citizens in the survey expressed their confidence that harassment by tax officials has reduced in the last 3 years. While tax harassment has reduced, the geopolitical situation and the rise in the exchange rate have meant that Indians have to shell out more money for household essentials, petrol, diesel, etc. India recorded over 15% inflation at the wholesale level last month putting pressure on common households and small businesses as consumer spending gets hit.

Government’s handling of Parliament & Foreign Affairs

The Parliament has taken some bold decisions in the last 3 years. This included the bifurcation of Jammu and Kashmir and the scrapping of Article 370, bringing in the Triple Talaq Bill 2019, Consumer Protection Act 2019 and Citizenship Amendment Act 2019, to name a few. The 3 farm laws introduced during the 2020 monsoon season was, however, repealed after facing criticism by opposition leaders, followed by a nationwide protest. On the parameter of handling the Parliament and Foreign Affairs, 67% of citizens believe that the government has effectively handled parliament and delivered on key bills in the last 3 years. On the foreign affairs matter, India has maintained a balanced position in the ongoing armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine since February 24th, 2022. The war upon Ukraine by Russia has had wide ramifications in the global economy, including India, in the form of price surge, especially in petrol and diesel rates as the price of crude oil has been surging at a painstaking rate. The prices of petrol and diesel rose between INR 10-15 over the last three months. However, the government on May 21st announced a cut in excise duty on petrol by INR 8 per litre, and INR 6 per litre on diesel.

Although India has chosen to maintain a balanced position regarding the ongoing armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine, it expressed its displeasure about the Russian actions in the written note. Experts maintain that if India takes a side with Ukraine, this would mean that Russia would no longer feel obligated to honour India’s request of not arming Pakistan as well as veto the Kashmir issue the next time it is raised in the United Nations, and could even end their half a century’s relationship. India also relies heavily upon Russia for arms supplies, technology transfers or the lease of nuclear submarines. India's problem is China, and it needs both the US, EU and Russia to deal with the China problem. India has thus far refrained from supporting any resolution against Russia.

When it comes to India’s influence in the world, 79% of citizens believe India's image and influence in the world have improved in the last 3 years. After a dip in the 2021 survey, people’s rating of the government’s ability to increase India’s influence in the world has once again risen on the backdrop of India’s effort to provide COVID-19 vaccines to many countries. The government hasn’t been able to do much in the state of affairs, such as communal harmony, though a large part of the year has been about tracking and containing the COVID spread and expediting vaccination across the country. However, there have been many instances of communal riots in the country. In the related poll, only 60% of citizens believe that communal harmony has improved in the last 3 years.

Mood of the Citizens

Many things determine a citizen’s quality of life in a country. Some of these are the rate of inflation, income, cost of living, public amenities, transport, infrastructure, etc. The Indian rupee on May 19th, 2022, hit an all-time low exchange rate of 77.72 against the US dollar. The previous lowest was 77.48 on May 9th, this year. This means that the dollar to rupee rate has moved from 1:38 in 2007 to beyond 1:77 in 2022 in relative economic terms. A loss of over 6% of rupee depreciation against the US dollar in the last 1 year has also made imported items costlier. The ongoing geopolitical tension fuelled by the Russian invasion of Ukraine has had an adverse impact on household finances. The rise in prices of household essentials, and other related products and services have been soaring at painstaking rate in the last 3 months, though the government on May 21st announced a cut in excise duty on petrol by INR 8 per litre, and INR 6 per litre on diesel. As per the latest data by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, the wholesale inflation in April 2022 rose to 15.08%, the highest rise in over 16 years, from 14.55% in the same year. It added that the April inflation was primarily due to a rise in prices of mineral oils, basic metals, crude petroleum & natural gas, food articles, non-food articles, food products and chemicals & chemical products, etc. India's annual wholesale price-based inflation accelerated to 13.11% in February from 12.96% in January 2022. The RBI recently hiked the key policy interest (repo) rate by 40 bps to 4.40% with immediate effect in order to contain the spike in inflation and re-anchor the inflationary expectations of households. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das had warned that the inflationary pressure may stay for a longer period than expected. In the survey, only 17% of citizens said the prices of essential commodities and the cost of living have reduced in the last 3 years.

Meanwhile, eliminating corruption was an important part of the Modi Government’s election manifestos in both 2014 and 2019. Although many steps have been taken by the government to fight corruption, only 46% of citizens in the 2022 survey believe that corruption has reduced in the last 3 years, which is a slightly better rating from citizens than in 2021. Most of the reduction in corruption can be attributed to the introduction of systems and the removal of human interfaces.

Handling of 2nd wave of COVID-19 crisis & its impact on the economy

India’s highest daily COVID caseload during the first was 97,000, as recorded on September 10th, 2020. No one had imagined that the impact of the 2nd wave of COVID could be of such vehemence that reached its peak to over 4 lakh cases during the last week of April 2021. Though the infection rate started to decline from the 2nd-3rd week of May 2021, the death rate took a toll that crossed 3 lakh fatalities as the virus reached out to villages in rural areas of the country. This period saw India's healthcare crumble down to its breaking point as millions battled for their lives, several died in line for treatment, and finding space even at crematoriums had become difficult. Hospitals were hit by an acute shortage of ICU beds, oxygen concentrators and cylinders, and related management drugs.

Just when the country started to witness a decline in COVID cases post the 2nd wave, the cases of more transmissible Omicron variants (BA.1 & BA.2) of COVID were detected in India starting early December 2021, giving a rise to the 3rd wave in the country. Since the 2nd wave though, the Central and State Governments were on high alert, announcing a slew of measures to contain and mitigate the spread. The Union Health Ministry held several meetings with states to review preparedness in terms of supply of oxygen equipment, including ventilators, pressure swing adsorption (PSA) plants, oxygen concentrators and oxygen cylinders for the timely and effective management of COVID. Though the 3rd wave was largely mild, a lot of people got infected. However, severe disease was largely limited and so were hospitalisations due to the nature of the variant. Both in the case of the 2nd wave and the 3rd wave, the Indian economy remained resilient and with timely actions from the Government, the markets bounced back from whatever dip they experienced.

Within weeks of decline in cases post the 3rd COVID wave, cases started rising in some parts of India like Delhi NCR and the country is reporting nearly 3000 cases a day now. With Omicron sub-variants BA.2.12.1 still circulating and newer subvariants BA.4 and BA.5 getting reported now, experts are trying to understand whether India could have a 4th COVID wave in the next 3-4 months. Amidst all of this a new disease, monkeypox has been reported in nearly 25 countries within the last 10 days confusing virologists if there is a relation to COVID. Health experts have suggested that it is crucial that citizens wear the right masks, follow social distancing protocols and get vaccinated for COVID. When citizens were asked how they felt India handled the 3 waves of the COVID-19 pandemic, 62% said the government handled it effectively. In the area of development, procurement, distribution, appointments, roll-out and administration of the COVID-19 vaccine, 88% of citizens believe that the government handled it well.

Through a series of graphics and charts, this report outlines how citizens have rated the Modi Government 2.0 at its 3-year mark.

Handling of COVID and Driving Economic Recovery post 3 waves

Poll 1 – Handling of COVID

Since the cases of Omicron variant were detected in India starting early December 2021, the Government of India has been on high alert, announcing a slew of measures to contain and mitigate the spread. While Omicron is more transmissible, it caused mild symptoms in the majority of cases and required minimum hospitalisation as compared to the 2nd wave of the pandemic led by the Delta variant. The Union Health Ministry held several meetings with states to review preparedness in terms of the supply of oxygen equipment, including ventilators, pressure swing adsorption (PSA) plants, oxygen concentrators and oxygen cylinders for the timely and effective management of COVID. The ministry also advised district-level containment and restrictions to be put in place if the daily TPR is 10% or more for a week or if 40% or more of bed occupancy, requires oxygen support or ICU beds. Travel restrictions were also revised, with an introduction of home quarantine to control the spread of the new variant. However, it was able to do little as complacency among citizens to wear masks and avoid crowds continue. As a result, the overall daily COVID caseload in India rose by 26 times to over 140,000 from 5000-6000 in three weeks. Though the 3rd wave was largely mild, a lot of people got infected. However, severe disease was largely limited and so were hospitalisations due to the nature of the variant. Both in the case of the 2nd wave and the 3rd wave, the Indian economy remained resilient and with timely actions from the Government, the markets bounced back from whatever dip they experienced.

Within weeks of decline in cases post the 3rd COVID wave, cases started rising in some parts of India like Delhi NCR and the country is reporting nearly 3000 cases a day now. With Omicron sub-variants BA.2.12.1 still circulating and newer subvariants BA.4 and BA.5 getting reported now, experts are trying to understand whether India could have a 4th COVID wave in the next 3-4 months. Amidst all of this a new disease, monkeypox has been reported in nearly 25 countries within the last 10 days confusing virologists if there is a relation to COVID. Health experts have suggested that it is crucial that citizens wear the right masks, follow social distancing protocols and get vaccinated.

When citizens were asked about the Government of India’s handling of the COVID from testing, tracking, treatment, containment, resources, and reporting standpoint, 62% of citizens believe that it handled COVID “Very effectively” and 22% said “Somewhat effectively”. 7% said the Government of India handled the wave “Not effectively” and 9% said “Quite poorly”. It must be noted that people have largely given a thumbs up to the Government on how the 1st and 3rd waves were handled and most of the dissatisfaction was about the 2nd COVID wave which took India by surprise. Many citizens though in the community discussions expressed their sympathies with the Government and felt that given the nature of the Delta variant and its intensity, the Government could not have done a whole lot more. This question in the survey received 10,439 responses.

62% citizens believe Government of India has been very effective in handling COVID since the beginning of the pandemic

Handling of COVID post the 2nd wave and preparedness for 3rd wave has led to significant increase in citizens approval rating of the Government

The percentage of citizens who said the government handled the COVID “Very effectively” increased from 27% in the 2021 survey to 62% this year. Whereas, the percentage of citizens who said that government handled the COVID “Quite poorly” declined from 32% in the previous survey to only 9% this year.

Poll 2 - Economic Recovery post-COVID-19 wave

During the initial months of the last year’s country-wide lockdown, the Indian economy was left battered by a strict nationwide lockdown, resulting in the economy contracting by 23.9% during April-June 2020. Even after relaxation to sectors that started to gradually reopen, India’s GDP in the September quarter contracted at a slower pace and fell 7.5% from 2020. However, with the right measures from the Government, the economy recovered from September 2020 to March 2021 only to find another bump in the road with the 2nd wave and associated lockdowns and restrictions. However, once again the bounce back from June-Nov 2021 was quite strong. During the 3rd COVID wave, there were no lockdowns, national or local, just some local restrictions thereby enabling the economic activity to continue despite Omicron.

The following question asked citizens’ responses to how the Government of India has handled the economic recovery during and post different waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. In response, 52% said “Very effectively”, and 23% said “Somewhat effectively”. Breaking down the poll, 13% said “Not effectively”, and 12% said “Quite poorly”. The findings of the survey suggest that 52% of citizens believe that the Government has effectively handled the economic recovery post different waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. This question in the survey received 11,364 responses.

52% citizens believe Government of India has been very effective in handling the economic recovery during the 3 different waves of the pandemic

Many citizens now believe that the Government has been effective in handling the economic recovery during the three COVID waves

When the survey asked a similar question in 2021, 66% of citizens had said that the Government has been effective in handling the economic recovery during the 1st COVID wave. This percentage has increased to 75% in this 2022 survey, indicating that more citizens believe that the Government has been effective in handling the economic recovery post the 2nd and 3rd COVID waves.

Poll 3 - COVID-19 vaccine development, procurement, distribution, appointments, roll-out and administration

The Government of India has administered over 200 crore vaccine doses (including 1st, 2nd and booster doses) under the nationwide vaccination drive. The government also allowed private centers to commence the inoculation of a precaution or a booster dose from April 10th for all adults above 18 years old. The COVID-19 vaccination drive to include children in India has also taken leaps. In the latest development, the country’s drug regulator, Drug Controller General of India (DCGI) has recommended granting emergency use authorisation to Hyderabad-based firm Biological E developed COVID-19 vaccine Corbevax for children in the 5 to 12 years age group. The COVID-19 vaccination drive to include 6.5 crore children in the 12 to 14 age group started on March 16 this year. Also, the inoculation for adolescents aged between 15 and 18 years started on Jan 3rd. Meanwhile, the Serum Institute of India (SII) also received the DCGI’s nod for emergency use authorisation of Covovax to children in the 12 to 17 age group.

When citizens were asked about the development, procurement, distribution, appointments, rollout and administration of the COVID-19 vaccine by the Government, 70% of citizens expressed that the Government handled it “Very Effectively”. 18% said it handled “Somewhat effectively”. However, 6% of citizens feel that vaccine rollout was “Not effective” and 5% said “Quite poorly”. This question in the survey received 11,542 responses.

70% citizens believe that the Government very effectively handled COVID-19 vaccine development, procurement, distribution, appointments, roll out and administration

Percentage of citizens who believe Government handled the COVID vaccine development, distribution, appointment, roll-out and administration very effectively doubled in the last 1 year

55% in the 2021 survey said the Government effectively handled the COVID vaccine development, distribution, appointment, roll-out and administration. This percentage has grown to a whopping 88% of citizens in 2022 expressing similar confidence.

Poll 4 - 58% citizens believe that the Government very effectively handled the management of COVID risk (resumption of flights, removal of restrictions, communication to people) post the 3rd wave

The Government of India announced the resumption of scheduled commercial international flights from March 27th, 2022 as overall daily COVID cases in India declined post the 3rd COVID wave. It also restored valid e-tourist visas issued for 5 years to nationals of 156 countries, along with the regular paper tourist visa. Similarly, restrictions across public places, including cinema halls, restaurants, malls were also lifted in view of declining cases.

The following question asked citizens, “How do you feel the Government of India has handled the management of COVID risk (resumption of flights, removal of restrictions, communication to people) post the 3rd wave?” In response, the majority, 58% of citizens said “Very effectively”, and 25% said “Somewhat effectively”. Breaking down the poll, 3% said “Not effectively”, and 12% said “Quite poorly”. 2% of citizens did not have an opinion. This question in the survey received 11,737 responses.

Making Citizens Life Safer, Easier & Better

Poll 5 – Reduction in Unemployment

India’s unemployment rate rose to 7.83% in April from 7.60% in March, according to the data released by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). While rural data showed a marginal drop in unemployment from 7.29% in March to 7.18% in April, urban joblessness saw a sharp spike to 9.22% in April from 8.28% a month ago. The following question asked citizens if the Government of India has been able to address the unemployment situation in the last 3 years. In response, only 37% said “Yes” and 47% said “No” while 16% did not have an opinion. This question in the survey received 11,538 responses.

Only 37% citizens believe that the Government has been able to effective tackle unemployment in India in the last 3 years

Though more people believe that Government is addressing the unemployment, it remains a critical area where people want to see concrete action

29% of citizens in the 2020 survey said that Government has addressed the issue of unemployment. This percentage saw a marginal rise in 2021 to 27% of people expressing similar confidence. This was largely on account of the recovery post the first COVID wave. This number improved further in 2022 survey with 37% believing that the Government is addressing the critical issue of unemployment. However, it must be noted that 63% believe that the Government is either not addressing it or don’t know if it is. 47% explicitly said that the Government isn’t able to address the issue of unemployment.

Poll 6 – Reduction in Prices of Essential Commodities & Cost of Living

As per the latest data by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, the wholesale inflation in April 2022 rose to 15.08%, the highest rise in over 16 years. Prices of essential commodities, especially retail prices of vegetables, have increased, upsetting homemakers to manage their domestic budget at a time when the earnings of many households across the country have been hit due to the ongoing pandemic, though the government on May 21st announced a cut in excise duty on petrol by INR 8 per litre, and INR 6 per litre on diesel Prices of essentials paid by consumers on the ground have been higher than usual due to the lack of supply availability and rising prices of fuel. As a result, only 17% of citizens said “Yes” the prices of essential commodities and the cost of living have reduced in the last 3 years. Whereas, the majority, 77% of citizens said “No” it hasn’t, while 4% did not have an opinion. This question in the survey received 11,239 responses.

Only 17% citizens believe that the prices of essential commodities and the cost of living has reduced in the last 3 years

Increasing number of citizens believe that price control of essential commodities by the Government has not been effective in the last 3 years

Only 36% of citizens in the 2020 survey said the Government has been able to effectively control the prices of essential commodities. In the 2021 survey, just 19% of citizens gave positive consent to this question. This percentage has further declined to 17% saying that prices of essential commodities and the cost of living have reduced. This indicates that in the last 3 years, an increasing number of people now believe that the Government is unable to effectively control the prices of essential commodities. Many people believe the ways adopted by the Government to track prices of essentials on the ground are obsolete and do not capture the reality and demands that immediate changes must be made to upgrade this system.

Poll 7 – Tackling Pollution

Pollution in the country has been a big talking point over the years. 10 of the cities with the worst quality in the world are in India led by none other than the National Capital Region of India. With PM 2.5 hitting 1000+ for many days in October and November every year, Indian needs an urgent solution to this crisis. The solution requires ensuring an end to the burning of farm stubble by making sure crop sowing cycles have timely availability of water and stubble, either decomposed naturally or picked up by a government facilitated service. This along with modern street cleaning equipment, restricted vehicular movement, etc must be implemented. When citizens were asked about the efforts taken by the Government to reduce pollution in the last 3 years, 44% of citizens said the Government did not take enough measures to improve air quality during the period. 42% said they felt enough steps were taken. 14% did not have an opinion. This question in the survey received 11,709 responses.

Only 42% citizens believe Government has taken enough measures to improve air quality in the last 3 years

Slight increase in the number of citizens who believe that the Government has been effective in handlig the issue of air pollution but more feel there hasn’t been improvement in the last 3 years

39% of citizens in 2020 had expressed confidence that the Government took enough measures to improve air quality. This percentage declined marginally to 38% expressing similar confidence in the 2021 survey. This year, 42% of citizens believe that the Government has been effective in handling the issue of air pollution but most of them feel that there hasn’t been an improvement in the last 3 years.

Poll 8 – Reduction in Corruption

Eliminating corruption was an important part of the Modi Government’s election manifestos of both 2014 and 2019. Although many steps have been taken by them to fight corruption with the introduction of technology in the 2014-2019 term, there has been limited progress made in the last 3 years. The tax was one area where several tainted officers and employees were terminated. In the corruption-related poll, 46% of citizens said they believe corruption in India has reduced in the last 3 years. Another 46% of citizens said it has not reduced, while 8% did not have an opinion. This question in the survey received 11,054 responses.

Only 46% citizens believe that corruption has reduced in the last 3 years

Though Government’s ability to reduce corruption received slightly better ratings from citizens than last year, 46% citizens still believe corruption hasn’t reduced in the last 3 years

49% of citizens in the 2020 survey said that corruption has reduced. This percentage dropped to 39% in the 2021 survey. Although Government’s ability to reduce corruption received slightly better ratings from people than last year, 46% of citizens still believe that corruption hasn’t reduced in the last 3 years.

Poll 9 – Improving Communal Harmony

The government has not been able to do much in terms of initiatives to improve communal harmony as most of the year has been under the ambit of the COVID-19 outbreak. However, there have been some incidents of communal violence in the country in the last 3 years with the Delhi riots being the worst of all. In the related poll, 60% of citizens felt the Government has been effective in improving communal harmony in the last 3 years. 33% of citizens disagreed and 7% did not have an opinion. This question in the survey received 11,394 responses.

60% citizens believe the Government has been effective in handling issues related to Communalism in the last 3 years

Increasing number of citizens believe that the Government has been effective in being able to improve communal harmony in the last 3 years

56% of citizens in the 2020 survey had expressed their confidence in the government’s ability to improve communal harmony, and this continued to drop to 49% in the 2021 survey. This year, this percentage has increased to 60% of citizens expressing similar confidence. This indicates that an increasing number of citizens believe that the Government has been effective in being able to improve communal harmony in the last 3 years.

Poll 10 - Reduction in Terrorism

Citizens were asked if they believe terrorism and acts of terror in India/against Indians have reduced in the last 3 years. 81% said “Yes” while 14% said “No”, and 5% did not have an opinion. This question in the survey received 11,321 responses.

81% citizens believe terrorism and acts of terror in India/against Indians have reduced in the last 3 years

Increasing number of people believe terrorism and acts of terror in India have reduced

56% of citizens in 2020 had expressed confidence that the government took enough measures to reduce terrorism and acts of terror in India. In the 2021 survey, 70% of people expressed similar confidence, and this has further increased to 81% this year. This indicates that an increasing number of people believe that terrorism and acts of terror in India have reduced in the last 3 years. Some of this can be attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic but it is clear that people give a thumbs up to how the Government has kept terror activities in check.

Ease of Doing Business and Taxation

Poll 11 - Reduction in harassment by Tax Officials

Several reforms were introduced by the government in the last 3 years to eliminate human interfaces with electronic interfaces such that the room for harassment is minimised. 60% of citizens said they believe harassment by tax officials has reduced in the last 3 years while 24% said it has not reduced. 16% were not sure about it. The government is expected to continue to introduce additional technology and data intelligence such that it can go after the tax evaders in a much more targeted manner without any harassment of the compliant citizens and businesses. This question in the survey received 11,318 responses.

60% citizens believe harrasment by Tax Officials has redcued in the last 3 years

With many new taxpayer reforms like faceless assessment and scrutiny, increasing number of people believe harassment by tax officials has reduced further

In the 2020 survey, 52% of people said there has been a reduction in harassment by tax officials. This number increased to 57% in 2021, and continues to increase to 60% this year. This indicates that increasing number of people believe harassment by tax officials has reduced in the last 3 years.

Poll 12 - Ease of Doing Business

Experts have pointed out that multiple GST rates and cumbersome taxation process have become primary issues that needed to be resolved to help India be in the 20s or 30s in the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business. India was 63rd in the last report of the World Bank. The government has said that many key reforms for Ease of Doing Business are in the pipeline, including the direct listing of securities by Indian public companies in permissible foreign jurisdictions. The government has also announced the suspension of fresh initiation of insolvency proceedings for up to one year and has also decided to exclude COVID-19-related debt from the definition of “default” under IBC. When asked if doing business has become easier in the last 3 years, 52% said “Yes” and 32% said “No”. 17% of people were unsure. This question in the survey received 12,040 responses.

52% citizens believe doing business has become easier in the last 3 years

Increasing number of citizens believe that doing business in India has gotten easier in the last 3 years

43% of citizens in the 2020 survey said they feel doing business has been easier in India. This percentage reduced marginally to 41% in the 2021 survey. However, this year, 52% of citizens have given their positive consent, indicating that an increasing number of citizens believe that doing business in India has gotten easier in the last 3 years.

Poll 13 - Ease of establishing startup or small business

The Startup India Mission was launched to help startups in India get an inclusive environment and foster their growth. With the number of registered startups more than doubled from 20,000 to 50,000 in the last 5 years, India now has the world’s 2nd largest startup ecosystem, which has also been attracting FDI and generating employment and wealth in the last 5 years. The government in 2019 also brought in a solution to end the angel tax which was a major pain point for startups where capital raised for startups was being treated as income by the taxman. When asked if establishing, operating and growing a startup has become easier in the last 3 years, the majority, 60% of citizens said “Yes” while 24% said “No” and 16% did not have an opinion. This question in the survey received 9,803 responses.

While the government has eased out administrative processes to register a startup, apply for patents, doing business with the Government or Indian corporates and getting paid on time continue to be a challenge for startups. Most Government departments continue to be reluctant in working with startups and awarding contracts to them, and most of the payments are late creating a liquidity crisis for revenue-dependent startups.

60% citizens believe establishing, operating and growing a startup or small business in India has become easier in the last 3 years

Increasing number of citizens believe establishing, operating and growing a startup/small business in India has become easier

Only 37% of citizens in 2020 said it has become easier to establish, operate and grow a startup or small business in India. This percentage increased to 44% of citizens expressing similar confidence in the 2021 survey and continues to increase to 60% this year. This suggests that an increasing number of citizens believe establishing, operating and growing a startup/small business in India has become easier.

Handling of Parliament and Delivery to Manifesto Promises

Poll 14 – Government’s handling of Parliament & delivery on Key Bills

The Parliament took some bold decisions in the last 3 years. This included the bifurcation of Jammu and Kashmir and the scrapping of Article 370, The Triple Talaq Bill 2019, Citizenship Amendment Act 2019, and the Consumer Protection Act 2019. However, the government had to repel the 3 farm laws which was introduced in the 2020 monsoon session of the Parliament, after it was highly criticized by the opposition leaders and followed a nationwide protest. On this parameter, 67% of citizens felt the government has been able to effectively handle Parliament and deliver on key bills in the last 3 years. 29% felt that they weren’t able to effectively handle the parliament and deliver on key bills, and 4% did not have an opinion. This question in the survey received 11,194 responses. One of the key inputs where there is consensus amongst citizens is the need for the government to discuss and debate issues rather than bring laws through ordinances.

67% citizens believe Government has effectively handled parliament and delivered on key bills in the last 3 years

Slight increase in the number of citizens who believe that the Government has been effective in handling parliament and deliver on key bills in the last 3 years

75% of citizens in the year 2020 had expressed confidence that the Government effectively handled the Parliament and delivered on key bills. However, this percentage declined to 61% of citizens expressing similar confidence in the 2021 survey. This year, it has increased marginally to 67% who believe that the Government has been effective in handling parliament and deliver on key bill in the last 3 years.

Poll 15 – Delivering Manifesto Promises

The NDA manifesto included key items like abrogation of Article 360 and Triple Talaq and bringing in the National Register of Citizens. All 3 of these were delivered by the government in the last 1 year. However, the government has limited progress to show in areas like employment creation and jobs, keeping the cost of essential low, and clean environment. When people were asked about government’s delivery to the manifesto, 63% of people said that they feel the Government is on track to deliver on the promises made in its pre-election manifesto. Only 28% said “No” and 9% did not have an opinion. This question in the survey received 10,349 responses.

63% citizens believe Government is on track to deliver to the promises made in its manifesto (pre-election 2019)

Increase in the number of citizens who believe the Government is on track to deliver to the promises made in its 2019 manifesto

59% of citizens in 2020 believed in the government’s ability to deliver the promises made in its 2019 manifesto. This percentage declined to 50% in 2021 who had expressed similar confidence. However, this year, 63% of citizens believe that the government is on track to deliver on the promises made in its 2019 manifesto.

Handling Geopolitical Affairs & Managing India’s Global Image

Poll 16 - India's image in the world

India now faces a testing time on the heels of an escalating war between Russia and Ukraine and has, so far, chosen to maintain a balanced position, though it expressed its displeasure about the Russian actions in the written note. India has been abstaining from a United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution, which called for condemning the Russian military action against Ukraine. Experts maintain that if India sidelines with Ukraine, this would mean that Russia would no longer feel obligated to honour India’s request of not arming Pakistan as well as veto the Kashmir issue the next time it is raised in the United Nations, and could even end their half a century’s relationship. India also relies heavily upon Russia for arms supplies, technology transfers or the lease of nuclear submarines. On the other hand, India faces more difficult choices with the US and EU nations pushing for a vote at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) aimed at “isolating Russia”. India's problem is China, and it needs both the US, EU and Russia to deal with the China problem. India has thus far refrained from supporting any resolution against Russia.

India’s relations with other countries have been mostly good in the last few years except for its neighbour China. India’s deteriorating ties with China are increasingly shaping the country’s geopolitical choices. Border tensions have been a feature of Sino-Indian relations. Post attempts by China in the Galwan valley, India responded on the economic front quite boldly shutting many products and services from China. On the vaccine front, India engaged in vaccine diplomacy and shipped vaccines to several countries. The country’s image, however, took a severe beating during the 2nd wave of the COVID pandemic as videos and images of overloaded crematoriums, hospitals and deaths, acute shortage of medical oxygen in hospitals went viral as the COVID 2nd wave hit India —couldn’t be handled effectively. Citizens were asked if they feel India's image and influence in the world have improved in the last 3 years. In response, 79% voted in its favour while 15% voted against it, and 6% did not have an opinion. This question in the survey received 11,493 responses.

79% citizens believe India's image and influence in the world has improved in the last 3 years

After a dip in 2021, people’s rating of Government’s ability to improve India’s influence in the world has once again risen

79% of citizens in 2020 believed that India’s influence in the world has improved. This percentage declined to 59% of citizens expressing similar confidence. However, this percentage in 2022 has increased to 79% of citizens who believe that India’s influence in the world has improved. This has traditionally been an area of strength of the Modi Government since 2015 and is something that the Government must continue to build upon.

Poll 17 – India’s handling of Russia-Ukraine situation

India has so far chosen to do no more than the unavoidable minimum in the ongoing armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine since February 24th, 2022. The war has caused wide ramifications in the global economy, including India, in the form of price surge, especially in petrol and diesel rates as price of crude oil has surged at a painstaking rate. Although India has expressed its displeasure about the Russian-Ukraine situation in a written note, experts maintain that if India sidelines with Ukraine would mean that Russia would no longer feel obligated to honour India’s request of not arming Pakistan as well as veto the Kashmir issue the next time it is raised in the United Nations, and could even end their half a century’s relationship. India also relies heavily upon Russia for arms supplies, technology transfers or the lease of nuclear submarines. The country faces more difficult choices with the US and EU nations pushing for a vote at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) aimed at “isolating Russia”. India's problem is China, and it needs both the US, EU and Russia to deal with the China problem. India has thus far refrained from supporting any resolution against Russia. In a related poo, 62% of citizens believe that the government handled the Russia-Ukraine situation “Very effectively”, and 22% said “Somewhat effectively”. 7% said “Not effectively”, and 5% said “Quite poorly”. 4% of citizens did not have an opinion. This question received 11,740 responses.

62% citizens believe that the Government handled the Russia-Ukrainer situation very effectively

Poll 18 – Optimism about Future

Indians are an optimistic lot and many continue to believe that India is yet to arrive. Citizens were asked if they feel optimistic about their and family's future in India. In response, 73% answered in positive while 20% answered in negative, and 6% did not have an opinion. This question received 12,614 responses.

73% citizens feel optimistic about their and their family's future in India

Percentage of citizens who are optimistic about their and their family’s future in India rises in the last 1 year

69% of citizens in 2019 were optimistic about their and family’s future. The following year, the percentage saw it decline to 62%, but has now increased to 73% this year. An increase in citizens' optimism about the future indicates that post-3 COVID waves, many have started to believe that India, which had missed the first global growth wave in 2016-17 due to demonetisation and GST, is on its way to recovering from the COVID pandemic. This explains the increase in optimism amongst a section of the population.

Poll 19 - Overall Performance

The next and final question asked citizens about the overall performance of years of Modi Government 2.0. Overall, 33% of citizens rated the 3 years performance of Modi Government 2.0 “Exceeding expectations” while 34% rated it as “Met expectations”. 30% said that the performance was “Below expectations”. This question in the survey received 15,583 responses.

67% citizens believe Modi Government performance has met or exceeded expectations in the last 3 years while 30% find it to be below expectations

As Modi Government 2.0 course corrects post COVID 2nd wave, its approval rating rises from 51% in 2021 to 67% in 2022

Citizen ratings for the Modi Government 2.0, which was at 62% in 2020 at the 1-year mark and had dipped to 51% at the 2-year mark post-COVID 2nd, has improved to 67% in 2022.

Summary & Way Forward

The major part of the past 3 years for the Modi Government 2.0 has been about handling three waves of COVID, from lockdown to unlocking, driving the economic recovery, developing and administering the COVID vaccine, in addition to getting a grip on critical issues of unemployment and inflation. While many believe that Modi Government 2.0 struggled to handle the 2nd wave of COVID, it course-corrected and was better prepared thereafter. The approval rating of the Government has improved from 51% in 2021 to 67% in 2022. People have also appreciated the concern the Government has shown on issues of rising petrol and diesel prices by delivering relief via lower duties and taxes.

While COVID cases have reduced, a future wave is certainly a possibility. The geopolitical uncertainties too are at a high which means issues like the price of oil, etc. will continue to be out of Government’s control. The key challenge for the Government going forward will be to stay prepared for a COVID wave while driving economic growth, creating new jobs and keeping prices for common citizens low. If the government is able to manage these challenges well and deliver corruption free citizen oriented governance, they will be able to maintain popularity and likely come back to power in 2024.