COVID prevalence in close network of Indians has rapidly risen in the last 2 weeks, with 77% citizens surveyed having someone testing positive in the last 30 days

January 19, 2022, New Delhi: States and Union Territories of India are on high alert after the COVID cases surged over the past month by over 50 times despite many taking the home antigen test (not reported in the numbers) or skipping testing altogether. The surge in cases has led some states and union territories to impose different restrictions to minimise the spread of the virus. People from across India have been reporting on the LocalCircles platform about how just in the last 2 weeks, COVID has become highly prevalent in their close social network. While the situation is not so bad in tier 3, 4 and rural districts yet but most tier 1 and tier 2 districts are seeing cases rise rapidly. There is conversation now about cases in Delhi and Mumbai coming down from the peak as both cities were the top two cities of India that saw increase in cases starting last week of December. LocalCircles has been collecting citizens’ input to understand how the prevalence of COVID has risen over time. Previous surveys conducted on Jan 3rd and Jan 10th showed an alarming rise in prevalence of COVID in social networks with doubling within a week, from 26% of people saying they have 1 or more becoming COVID positive in the last 30 days on Jan 3rd to 50% on Jan 10th. With the availability of home test kits or the infection being so widespread, most people are not even going for an RT-PCR, thereby, leading to sizable underestimation of the daily caseloads. Similarly, people have been reporting how once an RT-PCR or antigen test is done in a family unless someone is co-morbid, many members are skipping getting the test done and moving straight to treatment. To understand how the situation has changed since Dec 10th, LocalCircles conducted the 3rd survey in the series which received more than 18,500 responses from citizens across 312 districts of India. 66% respondents were men while 34% respondents were women. 41% respondents were from tier 1, 33% from tier 2 and 26% were from tier 3, 4 and rural districts.

77% citizens surveyed now have 1 or more people in their close social network (family, friends, neighbours, colleagues) who have tested positive in the last 30 days

The first question in the survey asked citizens, “How many individuals do you have in your close social network (family, friends, neighbours, colleagues) that that tested positive for COVID in the last 30 days?” In response, 23% of citizens said they have “No one in the last 30 days” who tested COVID positive. Breaking down the poll, 17% said they know “More than 10” individuals, 19% said “6-10”, 17% said “3-5”, and 24% said “1 or 2”. On an aggregate basis, 77% of citizens now have 1 or more people in their close social network who have tested COVID positive in the last 30 days. This question in the survey received 9,153 responses.

COVID prevalence in close networks has rapidly risen in the last 2 weeks

A similar question when asked to citizens as on January 3rd found out that 26% had 1 or more people in their close social network (family, friends, neighbours, colleagues) who had tested COVID positive in the last 30 days. This percentage increased to 50% in the Jan 10th survey, and is now at 77%, indicating that the spread prevalence of COVID in close networks has rapidly risen in the last 2 weeks.

COVID prevalence shows continued rise in depth with 36% citizens having over 5 or more contacts in their close networks impacted by COVID in the last 30 days

Breaking down the poll, the percentage of citizens who know over 5 individuals in their close network testing COVID positive in the last 30 days have shot up from nil on Jan 3rd, 23% on Jan 10th to 36% on Jan 17th. Further, the percentage of citizens saying they don’t have anyone in their close social network who tested positive in the last 30 days continues to decrease from 69% on Jan 3rd, 48% on Jan 10th to 23% on Jan 17th during the period. This means that the COVID prevalence shows continued rise in depth with 36% of citizens having over 5 or more contacts in their close networks impacted by COVID in the last 30 days.

41% citizens surveyed say they have 1 or more individuals in their close social network who despite having COVID symptoms in the last 30 days did not get an RT-PCR test done and went into self-treatment/quarantine

The following question in the survey asked citizens, “How many individuals in your close social network (friends, family, colleagues, neighbours) that in the last 30 days despite having COVID symptoms did not get a COVID RT-PCR test done and instead went into self-treatment/quarantine at home?” In response, 39% of citizens said they have “No one in the last 30 days”. There were, however, 18% who said they know “More than 10”, 10% know “6-10”, 5% know “3-5”, and 8% know “1-2” individuals. On an aggregate basis, 41% of citizens surveyed say they have 1 or more individuals in their close social network who despite having COVID symptoms in the last 30 days did not get a test done and went into self-treatment or quarantine at home. This question in the survey received 9,523 responses.

41% citizens now have 1 or more people in their close social networks who despite having symptoms skipped the RT-PCR test; this number was at 15% a week ago

The percentage of citizens who despite having COVID symptoms in the last 30 days did not get a test done and went into self-treatment or quarantine at home has risen from 15% on Jan 10th survey to 41% on Jan 17th. It must be noted that the new ICMR guidelines do not require healthy contacts of COVID positive testing individuals to take the RT-PCR test. Many people are now preferring to either take the home antigen test or skipping the testing altogether, thereby, treating COVID like regular viral fever. Many leading scientists around the world are advising against this approach but it is being widely adopted in India now.

28% citizens now have 5 or more people in their close social networks who despite having symptoms skipped the RT-PCR test; this number was at 1% a week ago

The percentage of citizens who have 5 or more people in their close social network who despite having symptoms skipped the RT-PCR test has risen from 1% on Jan 10th to 28% now, indicating an increase in the approach of skipping the test altogether.

In summary, the survey indicates that 77% of citizens now have 1 or more people in their close social network (family, friends, neighbours, colleagues) who have tested COVID positive in the last 30 days. This percentage has increased from 26% on Jan 3rd, 50% on Jan 10th to 77% on Jan 17th, indicating that the prevalence of COVID in close networks of citizens has rapidly risen over the last two weeks. Of the 77% who have 1 or more people impacted with COVID, 36% now know over 5 individuals testing positive within the last 30 days.

With 41% of citizens now saying that they have 1 or more individuals in their close social network who chose not to get tested and instead went into quarantine and self-treatment indicates how a large number of Indians are skipping the RT-PCR test. With the new ICMR guidelines encouraging healthy and mildly symptomatic individuals to not undertake the RT-PCR, this number is only likely to rapidly rise, further understating the daily caseloads in India.

Survey Demographics

18,500 responses from citizens across 312 districts of India. 66% respondents were men while 34% respondents were women. 41% respondents were from tier 1, 33% from tier 2 and 26% were from tier 3, 4 and rural districts. The survey was conducted via LocalCircles platform and all participants are validated citizens who had to be registered with LocalCircles to participate in this survey.