Prevalence of COVID in close social networks has doubled within a week; 1 in 2 Indians surveyed now have someone in their close social network testing positive in last 30 days

January 12, 2022, New Delhi: All States and Union Territories in India are on a high alert as COVID cases surge in a short period of 3 weeks by over 36 times (From 5300 on Dec 20th to nearly 195,000 on Jan 11th) with Omicron being the predominant variant based on genome sampling rates. The Government warned a few weeks ago that Omicron could accelerate the overall daily COVID cases to more than 14 lakhs given the population of India based on surges observed in other countries. Experts from World Health Organisation (WHO) maintain that there is a reduced risk of hospitalisation as Omicron appears to produce less severe disease than the Delta strain but should not be categorised as "mild”. The vaccine efficacy reports against Omicron are also not encouraging with most 2-dose vaccines losing their efficacy, with many countries now expediting on providing their citizens with a booster dose. India commenced its precaution or booster dose program yesterday for healthcare workers, senior citizens and those with co-morbidities.

People from many large cities of India like Delhi-NCR, Mumbai, Chennai, Kolkata have been reporting on the LocalCircles platform about how just in the last 10 days COVID has once again become highly prevalent in their close social networks. While the situation is not so bad in tier 3, tier 4 and rural districts yet but it is only a matter of a few weeks before these locations start seeing similar patterns. To understand how the prevalence of COVID has risen over time, LocalCircles conducted a survey on Jan 3rd and once again on Jan 10th and the results are revealing. Previously, this social network prevalence survey has been done several times in the last 18 months and a comparison was made as part of this report for better understanding.

The survey assumes higher importance now as compared to the first and second waves, as at that time, home test kits were not available. With the availability of home test kits, many are not even going for an RT-PCR thereby leading to underestimation of the daily caseloads. Similarly, people have been reporting how once an RT-PCR or antigen test is done in a family unless someone is co-morbid many families are skipping getting the test done and moving straight to treatment. The survey received more than 30,000 responses from citizens across 371 districts of India. 66% respondents were men while 34% respondents were women. 46% respondents were from tier 1, 28% from tier 2 and 26% were from tier 3, 4 and rural districts.

50% Indians now have 1 or more people in their close social network (family, friends, neighbours, colleagues) who have tested positive in the last 30 days

On January 10th, the first question in the survey asked citizens, “How many individuals do you have in your close social network (family, friends, neighbours, colleagues) that that tested positive for COVID in the last 30 days?” In response, 48% of citizens said they have “No one in the last 30 days” who tested COVID positive. Breaking down the poll, 9% said they know “More than 10” individuals, 14% said “6-10”, 11% said “3-5”, and 16% said “1 or 2”. Only 2% couldn’t say. On an aggregate basis, 50% of citizens now have 1 or more people in their close social network who have tested COVID positive in the last 30 days. This question in the survey received 9,809 responses.

Prevalence of COVID in close networks has doubled within a week

A similar question when asked to citizens as on January 3rd with 9,014 responses found out that 26% of citizens had 1 or more people in their close social network (family, friends, neighbours, colleagues) who had tested COVID positive in the last 30 days. This percentage has increased to 50% now, suggesting that the spread prevalence of COVID in close networks has doubled within a week.

COVID prevalence rising in spread and depth: 23% Indians now have over 5 individuals in their close social network who tested positive within the last 30 days

Breaking down the poll, the percentage of citizens who know over 5 individuals in their close network who have tested COVID positive in the last 30 days have shot up from nil on Jan 3rd to 23% on Jan 10th. Further, the percentage of citizens saying they don’t have anyone in their close social network who tested positive in the last 30 days decreased from 69% to 48% during the period. This means that the COVID prevalence among close networks of citizens is rising in spread or width as well as depth.

Citizens in large cities have also reported that many individuals in their networks are doing antigen tests at home instead of getting an RT-PCR done or not taking a test at all and then going into quarantine or self-treatment.

15% surveyed say they have 1 or more individuals in their close social network who despite having COVID symptoms in the last 30 days did not get an RT-PCR test done and went into self-treatment/quarantine at home

The second question in the survey asked citizens, “How many individuals in your close social network in the last 30 days, despite having COVID symptoms did not get a COVID RT-PCR test done and instead went into self-treatment/quarantine at home?”. In response, the majority of 75% of citizens said they have “No one in the last 30 days”. There were, however, 1% of citizens who said they know “More than 10”, 4% know “3-5”, and 10% know “1-2” individuals. On an aggregate basis, 15% of citizens surveyed say they have 1 or more individuals in their close social network, including family, friends, neighbours, colleagues, who despite having COVID symptoms in the last 30 days did not get a test done and went into self-treatment or quarantine at home. This question in the survey received 10,176 responses.

In summary, the survey indicates that 50% of citizens now have 1 or more people in their close social network (family, friends, neighbours, colleagues) who have tested COVID positive in the last 30 days. This percentage has increased from 26% on Jan 3rd to 50% on Jan 10th, indicating that the prevalence of COVID in close networks of citizens has doubled within a week. Of the 50% who have 1 or more people impacted with COVID, 23% know over 5 individuals testing positive within the last 30 days.

LocalCircles’ surveys in May 2020 or during the 1st wave of COVID-19 indicated that 7% of citizens had 1 or more individuals in their close social network who tested COVID positive in the last 30 days. This percentage saw a drastic increase during the initial phase of the 2nd wave in March 2021 to 51%. With 1 in 2 citizens on Jan 10th indicating that they now have 1 or more individuals who tested COVID positive in the last 30 days and this number doubling within a week, it indicates that we are in the middle of the 3rd wave. With 1 in 6 already not getting tested and going into quarantine and self-treatment, and the new ICMR guidelines encouraging healthy and mildly symptomatic individuals to not undertake the RT-PCR, this number is likely to rapidly rise further understating the daily caseloads in India.

Survey Demographics

The survey received more than 30,000 responses from citizens across 371 districts of India. 66% respondents were men while 34% respondents were women. 46% respondents were from tier 1, 28% from tier 2 and 26% were from tier 3, 4 and rural districts. The survey was conducted via LocalCircles platform and all participants are validated citizens who had to be registered with LocalCircles to participate in this survey.