Though risk of a 3rd wave looms, many Indians plan to socialise and celebrate in September & October

September 9, 2021, New Delhi: Public health officials advise that citizens should continue to limit their exposure and visits, including indoor and outdoor socialising to minimise the spread of COVID and prevent a possible 3rd wave especially as India goes into its festival season in the next 2 months. Thousands of citizens on the LocalCircles platform have been reporting since early August that family, relatives, friends, neighbours, and colleagues have been frequenting their homes and vice versa. Many have also been getting back their domestic helps or service providers for various repairs, services at the doorstep, which got postponed due to the 2nd wave in April-June.

As India’s festive season starts this weekend with Ganesh Puja, followed by Durga Puja, Navratri and Dusshera such visits and social interactions are only expected to increase the risk of COVID spread and the arrival of a 3rd wave that epidemiologists and data modeling experts have been predicting it to likely arrive in India in September-October.

To quantify the magnitude of social interactions and the risk, LocalCircles has conducted its second household social interaction survey for the year. The survey has focused on understanding from people about the different categories of people they expect to visit and host at their homes in the next 30 days. It also sought to know about the different kinds of get-togethers they are planning to attend during this period. The survey received over 27,000 responses from over 12,000 Indian households residing in 312 districts of India. 67% of the participants were men while 33% were women. 44% of respondents were from tier 1 districts, 31% from tier 2 and 25% respondents were from tier 3, 4 and rural districts.

80% Indian households will have 1 or more categories of visitors coming to their home in the next 30 days

The first question in the survey asked citizens about the different categories of people they expect to visit their homes in the next 30 days. In response, 17% said they expect a visit from (1) family or relatives that don’t stay with them, 8% expect “(2) friends, neighbours, and colleagues”, and 22% expect “(3) domestic help, service providers, others”. Breaking down the poll, 3% of citizens expect a visit from “1 & 2” categories of people from the aforementioned option. 5% expect “2 & 3”, 9% expect “1 & 3”, and 16% expect all “1, 2 & 3” categories of people to visit them in the next 30 days. There were also 20% of citizens who said that it’s not applicable or they do not expect anyone from outside to visit them in the next 30 days. On an aggregate basis, 80% of Indian households will have 1 or more categories of visitors coming to their home in the next 30 days. This question in the survey received 9,392 responses.

Majority of Indian households are likely to have service providers, domestic helps, and extended family visit them in the next 30 days

If reasons given by Indian households are evaluated in the order of priority, 52% expect domestic help, service providers, others to visit them in the next 30 days. Another 45% of Indian households expect family or relatives that don’t stay with them, and 32% expect friends, neighbours, colleagues to visit them in the next 30 days.

59% Indian families plan to visit family, friends, others in the next 30 days

Similarly, the following question in the survey sought to understand from citizens about the different categories of people that they expect to visit in the next 30 days. In response, 23% said “(1) Family or relatives that don’t stay with us”, 11% said “(2) friends, neighbours, colleagues”, and 5% said “(3) others”. Breaking down the poll, 11% said they plan to visit “1 & 2” categories of people from the aforementioned options. 2% said “2 & 3”, 3% said “1 & 3”, while 4% expect to visit all “1, 2 & 3” categories of people. The majority of 41% of citizens surveyed said it’s not applicable or they don’t plan to visit anyone in the next 30 days. On an aggregate basis, 59% of Indian families plan to visit family, friend, others in the next 30 days. This question in the survey received 9,181 responses.

Highest percentage of Indian families plan to visit family and relatives followed by visiting friends, neighbours & colleagues in the next 30 days

If reasons given by Indian households are evaluated in the order of priority, 41% expect to visit family or relatives in the next 30 days. Another 28% of Indian households expect to visit friends, neighbours, and colleagues. Lastly, 14% expect to visit others in the next 30 days.

48% Indian families plan to attend get-togethers for festivals, birthdays, special occasions and other events in the next 30 days

There are plenty of Indian festivals lined up in September and October such as Ganesh Puja, Navratri, Durga Puja, Dussehra, etc. Many Indian families generally gather during these festivals to celebrate the occasions and with many restraining themselves in 2020 due to the risk and unknowns of COVID, they are likely to come together this year. Many feel that since they are vaccinated, the risk for them will be lower this year.

The next question in the survey asked citizens about the different kinds of get-togethers they expect to attend in the next 30 days. In response, 18% of citizens surveyed said they expect to have “(1) get togethers for festivals” in the next 30 days. 7% said they expect “get togethers for birthdays, anniversaries, other occasions”, and another 7% expect “(3) other events related to neighbourhood, workplace, etc.” Breaking down the poll, 6% of citizens surveyed expect “1 & 2” categories of get-togethers from the aforementioned options, 2% expect “2 & 3”, another 2% expect “1 & 3”, and 6% expect all “1, 2, and 3” get togethers. The majority of 52% of citizens surveyed said it’s not applicable or they do not plan to attend any get togethers in the next 30 days. On an aggregate basis, 48% of Indian families plan to attend get togethers for festivals, birthdays, special occasions and other events in the next 30 days. This question in the survey received 8,255 responses.

Highest percentage of Indian families plan to attend festival get-togethers, followed by attending birthdays, special occasions in the next 30 days

If reasons given by Indian families are put in the order of priority, 32% expect to have get-togethers for festivals in the next 30 days. Further, 21% of Indian families expect to get-togethers for birthdays, anniversaries, or other occasions. Lastly, 17% expect to have get-togethers related to other events in their neighbourhood, workplace, etc., in the next 30 days.

In summary, the findings of the survey indicate that 80% of Indian households will have 1 or more categories of visitors coming to their home in the next 30 days. Of whom, the majority of Indian households expect to have service providers, domestic helps, and extended family visit them. On the other hand, 59% of Indian families plan to visit family, friend, others in the next 30 days. Also, 48% of families plan to attend get-togethers for festivals, birthdays, special occasions and other events during the period.

While the COVID fatigue is understandable, we as Indians must remember the months of February and March this year when many Indians lowered the guard and took to active socialising and stepping out, visiting multiplexes, malls, markets and undertaking domestic travel only to see a brutal 2nd wave in April and May. Almost 2 in 3 households had someone in their close social network falling victim to the Delta variant of COVID, and many households across the country were subjected to hefty bills for treatment, supplies and medicines.

Not only there is the risk of Delta variant causing more cases as people socialise and mingle, but there is also the risk of Delta Plus, C.1.2, Mu and other variants finding a base to spread and take off. With schools open across most of India, any infection in the family due to socialising could have a multiplier effect as their children could spread the same in schools to other children and teachers. It is therefore critical that people observe restrain during this festive season, limit social visits to most essential ones, and follow mask and social distancing discipline in all spaces that they visit. Similarly, Central Government, State Governments and District Administrations must ensure that they limit community gatherings and events like pandals for Ganesh, Durga Puja, Navratri and Ravan Dahan. Many State Governments lowered their guard in December 2020-March 2021 permitting community and religious events during winter and that is something that must be completely avoided. Also, the Government must create awareness and educate people, especially those residing in small towns and rural areas where mask enforcement is completely missing, taking the vaccine has created the impression that they are now protected which is likely to not hold true with the new COVID variants

Survey Demographics

The survey received over 27,000 responses from over 12,000 Indian households residing in 312 districts of India. 67% of the participants were men while 33% were women. 44% of respondents were from tier 1 districts, 31% from tier 2 and 25% respondents were from tier 3, 4 and rural districts. The survey was conducted via LocalCircles platform and all participants were validated citizens who had to be registered with LocalCircles to participate in this survey.