AAP can’t succeed with multi-ideology in the 21st century - ET
There is also the AAP's simple message: we are different from both, the Congress and BJP. For the Congress, even if in the current elections it helps to have the anti-Congress vote shared between the BJP and AAP, the AAP is a long term existential threat. If the AAP emerges as an all-India formation and not one limited to only urban areas, it's a challenge to the Congress as well.
For the BJP, a fledgling AAP's denial of a BJP victory in Delhi was indeed a deep blow for its claim of a Modi wave. Delhi has been a stronghold of the BJP and the RSS. Delhi showed that given a choice, the Indian people do not want either the Congress or the BJP. What does this portend for other states? Has the Modi wave peaked too early?
Claim to Fame: BJP Baiter
The AAP has not only captured the anger of the people with the current political establishment, it has also staked a claim to the secular space that the Congress believed was their monopoly. With Kejriwal's stormy visit to Gujarat and its militant protests in front of BJP offices, it has declared that it can take on the BJP.
The argument that Congress is the only force capable of stopping BJP looks increasingly weak. It is a rudderless ship, with Manmohan Singh appearing ineffectual and its new leader Rahul Gandhi clueless. For the Congress, the party seems to be over. Its dynastic rule makes it difficult to throw up a new leader from outside the family; if the dynasty fails to deliver a leader who can deliver victory in the elections, Congress has very little left in its kitty.
What's Plan B?
Then the knives come out, with all leaders gunning for each other. The lower the mass base a leader has, the more the manoeuvring and skulduggery within. Lacking any culture of a democratic transition, the Congress appears incapable of creating an alternative leadership minus the dynasty.
In a sense, the AAP is very much a formation like the Congress of yore. Not the wheeling-dealing Congress we know today but the Congress that had emerged out of the national movement. AAP, like the then-Congress, has no clear ideology as a party. It says that it will develop its positions with the help of the people, as it does not have any.
Its denial of any "book" (read ideology) allows both sets of views, from "market will decide" to the "state having an obligation to the people", to coexist within the party. This is very much like the old Congress; its amorphous ideology allowed opposing ideological forces to coexist within the fold. Similarly for secularism. The nearest that AAP comes to in its secular ideology is again the Congress. Kejriwal — dipping in the Ganga at Varanasi and pausing midspeech for namaaz— again is familiar Congress terrain.
A negative agenda — we are not like other parties, we are against corruption — can temporarily unify dissent within the country. Large projects have helped big corporations, thrown people out of their land and rendered many destitute. Opposing corruption in such projects can get activists to join AAP. But it still begs the question: what is its development model?
Take a Stand
Without a clear ideological position, there is only so far AAP can go. But given the slow demise of the Congress, AAP still has considerable space to grow. After all, the Congress has been able to continue as a multi-ideology alliance for a long period. So why not AAP?
The problem is that India is now entering development phase where keeping all options open on development, with free markets as well as state intervention, is no longer possible. The economic crisis is catching up fast and all political parties will need to address how to get out of it.
The AAP is still in its honeymoon phase with the electorate. A few days in governance in Delhi, constituting largely declarations of intent and sitting on dharnas, do not constitute a coherent vision. At some time or the other, it will have to stand up for its own vision of India. That will be its litmus test. more