Die Another Day - Indian Republic

Worth a read for AAP and its supporters including all of us.

Narendra Modi has delivered astounding numbers.

To understand the sheer magnitude of the tsunami he has struck, consider this: since the 1984 General Elections, 7 elections have been held. No single party has been able to get a majority (272 seats) on its own; the closest was in 1999 when the NDA picked up 270 seats, under the tutelage of Atal Bihari Vajpayee.

Under Modi, BJP has galloped past 272. The NDA stands at a tally of 330+. For many of brought up in the coalition era, this is the first time we have witnessed such a dominating majority. This is not just a wave; this is for all intents and purposes, a tsunami.

In this tsunami, Modi has swept away all other contenders, except maybe Mamata, Jayalalitha and Patnaik. While not many will waste their tears for the Congress Party, it is a huge moment of introspection for Arvind Kejriwal and his merry band of followers, the Aam Aadmi Party.

It is high time the AAP took a deep hard look at themselves. They are in grave danger of being rendered obsolete, in the vein of many such upstarts in Indian politics. They stand at a precipice and their actions will determine whether they take the path of obsolescence, or whether they continue to remain relevant in Indian politics.

The first lesson which Kejriwal should take from this: know your enemy. In Delhi, a Sheila Dikshit, who had ruled for 10+ years was an easy target. Strong anti-incumbency sentiments, coupled with the goodwill of an outsider, stood Kejriwal in good stead in Delhi, and he deservedly dethroned Sheila. But, if Kejriwal was smart, he should have realized that Modi was a different kind of fish altogether. There was honestly no chance for Kejriwal to win against Modi; Modi was riding an upsurge of popular sentiment, and he would probably have won wherever he contested. This proved correct, as Modi toured the entire country but still won by handsome margins in Varanasi, while Kejriwal was forced to spend his entire time in Varanasi.

Any good strategist knows to retreat when the enemy is strong, and come back later, for a second round. Die Another Day, as the popular adage goes. Kejriwal should do well to respect this.

Secondly, the AAP should respect its strongholds. The AIADMK, TMC, or the BJD know their respective strongholds: Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, and Odisha, respectively. Mamata or Jayalalitha have national aspirations, but they are careful to act on those sentiments, only when they are confident of their clout in their strongholds. This was where AAP missed a trick. A fantastic performance in the Delhi Assembly elections should have resulted in them aiming to make Delhi a citadel for the AAP. But, their rush to get ahead of themselves has resulted in a humiliating defeat. By rushing away from Delhi ostensibly for ‘the greater good’, the people of Delhi felt betrayed and punished the AAP by pushing the BJP to victory in all 7 Lok Sabha seats in Delhi.

Thirdly, it is high time the AAP sticks to issues. Their message of anti-corruption has become mixed in the buildup to their campaign, what with Kejriwal courting the Muslim vote and Shazia Ilmi asking all Muslims to vote communally. This was not the original AAP message, and it is a reflection of their muddled thinking of trying to win at any cost. Surprisingly, the AAP gained in a region where it concentrated completely on local issues, without making a hue and cry about it: Punjab, with 4 seats. The message? Stick to your guns, stick to what you believed in. Do not try to make your message a hodge-podge of everything, just to get an additional vote.

Fourthly, think before acting. The AAP should have realized that to gain impetus in India, they required people such as Kejriwal and Yogendra Yadav in Parliament. Rather than making them fight in difficult seats, the AAP should have contested such personalities in Delhi, where they would have stood a slightly better chance of winning. They might have perhaps been called ‘cowards’, but they should have realized that it was far more important to send their top leaders to Parliaments, rather than fight an ego battle (with Modi in Varanasi and Rahul Gandhi in Amethi).

The Aam Aadmi Party still enjoys considerable goodwill in the country. However, their actions in this particular year, as well as their performance in the Delhi Assembly Elections will be the litmus test. A limpid performance will surely see the Aam Aadmi Party lose its cohesiveness and break up.

If it does manage to get its act together, however, there are opportunities left to be taken. With the Congress’ pathetic performance, the time is ripe for another claimant to the anti-BJP space in the Indian political spectrum. None of the regional parties will fit the fold as they will be too busy trying to check the BJP’s advances in their own states. Kejriwal might be brooding right now, but he’s got a great opportunity in front of him; now it’s upto him to mess it up. more