RBI survey highlights reality
Four years of NDA rule at the Centre has led to a drop in people’s optimism about employment and income prospects, raising uncomfortable questions about the Modi government’s economic policies.
According to the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) latest consumer confidence survey, which was conducted in six metropolitan cities – Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru, Chennai, Kolkata and Hyderabad – in May, as many as 48% of respondents said that the general economic situation has worsened from a year ago while 31.9% said the condition has improved. That gives a net response of -16.1 (31.9 -48) percentage points.
In comparison, the net response was -14.4 percentage points in June 2014 – one month after the Modi government took charge and the Manmohan Singh-led UPA-II government stepped down.
The consumer confidence survey, which obtains responses on “households’ perceptions and expectations on the general economic situation, the employment scenario, the overall price situation and their own income”, has also captured data on whether respondents expect the economic situation to be better or worse a year later.
In the May 2018 survey, 49.5% of respondents said the situation will improve while 27.8% said it will worsen.
In comparison, in the June 2014 survey, as many as 56.7% of respondents said the situation will get better in a year’s time and only 17.6% said it will worsen.
A little more than half – 50.8% – of those surveyed in May 2018 said they expected their income to increase in the next year. In comparison, the proportion of those who expected their income to improve was 63.9% in the June 2014 survey.
The only parameter on which the NDA government scores better than the UPA-II is inflation. But for that, the Modi government cannot take credit, as it is an outcome of moderation in the global oil market.
The benchmark Brent crude was ruling at near $110 a barrel in May 2014. It began falling in June 2014 and hit the historic low of $30.8 per barrel in January 2016, offering a significant headroom to the Modi government to jack up excise duty on petrol and diesel and fill its coffers.
On completion of its four years on May 26, the Modi government held country-wide events to showcase the achievements. However, findings of the RBI survey tell that people feel the economic situation has changed for the worse under the Modi government.
According to the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) latest consumer confidence survey, which was conducted in six metropolitan cities – Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru, Chennai, Kolkata and Hyderabad – in May, as many as 48% of respondents said that the general economic situation has worsened from a year ago while 31.9% said the condition has improved. That gives a net response of -16.1 (31.9 -48) percentage points.
In comparison, the net response was -14.4 percentage points in June 2014 – one month after the Modi government took charge and the Manmohan Singh-led UPA-II government stepped down.
The consumer confidence survey, which obtains responses on “households’ perceptions and expectations on the general economic situation, the employment scenario, the overall price situation and their own income”, has also captured data on whether respondents expect the economic situation to be better or worse a year later.
In the May 2018 survey, 49.5% of respondents said the situation will improve while 27.8% said it will worsen.
In comparison, in the June 2014 survey, as many as 56.7% of respondents said the situation will get better in a year’s time and only 17.6% said it will worsen.
A little more than half – 50.8% – of those surveyed in May 2018 said they expected their income to increase in the next year. In comparison, the proportion of those who expected their income to improve was 63.9% in the June 2014 survey.
The only parameter on which the NDA government scores better than the UPA-II is inflation. But for that, the Modi government cannot take credit, as it is an outcome of moderation in the global oil market.
The benchmark Brent crude was ruling at near $110 a barrel in May 2014. It began falling in June 2014 and hit the historic low of $30.8 per barrel in January 2016, offering a significant headroom to the Modi government to jack up excise duty on petrol and diesel and fill its coffers.
On completion of its four years on May 26, the Modi government held country-wide events to showcase the achievements. However, findings of the RBI survey tell that people feel the economic situation has changed for the worse under the Modi government.
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Hi Ruchika recently Local Circles opinion survey found its way into mainstream newspapers (TOI). Maybe it did so as the poll showed more confidence in Modi Government. However you are very right...the high hopes and expectation which Modi Government raised was relegated only to papers. Embarrassing news items/articles are blocked from visual media and all channels have to give prominent coverage to Modiji's speech either in India or Overseas to prove that they are Desh-Bhakts.
Jun 09
It is true that this Government has been able to do more in the sphere of Macro-Economy and not much in the Micro-Economy !! It may not be only because any lack of trying or having good intentions to do it .. they have been under Minute-by-Minute Scrutiny from everybody, be it the Opposition, the Media or the Public .. I have never seen so much Comments about any other Government for every statement, every Election, every Policy Decision, every Court Judgement, et. al. !! On top of that, the Opposition's Wholesale Resolve to not let the Parliament function and not allow nearly any Laws to be passed in the Rajya Sabha, has really not allowed Modiji to do a Gujarat Modelling of Delhi .. AAP in Delhi has only done so much in Delhi .. though very less than expected but still a lot given the LG/Centre Roadblocks .... In the second term of 2019-24, I expect Modiji to really take off at a real fast pace with the Rajya Sabha also secured .... Let's hope for the best as the Alternative is scary .. with 15-20 PM aspirants trying another 1977 or 1990 or 1996 type of experiment ....
Jun 08
Aah...that is a more neutral summation Sourav.
Jun 19
Cancer of corruption is present not only in Govt. but also in private institutions which acts as a datterent to progress and grpwn in economy. Lack of accountability and inefficiency in the Govt. department is yet another factor in one or other way discouraging the enterpreners to start some thing new.
Jun 08
Dear Ruchika and Members, I am of the view that the central government has given due importance for capitalism with no efforts to optimise the expenses. It could not infuse financial discipline and compliance. I am apprehensive that overall economy will have any positive impact from the point of view of common people which means socio-economic situation will worsen. Elected Leaders salary should have not been more than the minimum wages to unskilled labour. These leaders have so many facilities and alowances to meet their overheads. Black money circultaion has not been reduced. The Government if really wanted to control black money generation the large denomination notes should have not been in circulation. Cash expenses should have been reduced by incentivising expenses through credit card with nominal transaction charges and debit card with no transaction charges.
Jun 08
If the economic survey is conducted in Delhi and the results are tabulated, every household atleast saves 1000-2000 rupees per month on account of reduced bills on electricity, health, water, education. This is a great achievement by a state government with minimal support from center. Hope this situation improves with better cooperation between delhi government and the LG/Center.
Jun 08
